Correlation Is Not The Same As Causation
Launch library · evergreen read
Two things rising or falling together is one of the easiest patterns to notice and, unfortunately, one of the easiest to misread entirely. Correlation only shows that two measurements move in step with one another, not that one causes the other, and not that some third factor is not quietly driving both of them at once.
Claims that skip straight from a pattern to a firm cause are worth slowing down on, especially when the proposed explanation is emotionally satisfying or conveniently confirms something already believed beforehand. A more careful claim usually acknowledges the possibility of coincidence, confounding factors, or reverse causation before settling confidently on any single explanation for what was observed.
A useful habit is asking what else could plausibly explain the pattern besides the one cause being offered by whoever is making the claim. If a claim cannot survive that simple question, it is describing a correlation dressed up as a firm conclusion, and it deserves to be treated exactly that way.